Authors: Sebastian G Popescu (Imperial College London)*; David Sharp (Imperial College London); James Cole (University College London); Konstantinos Kamnitsas (Imperial College London); Ben Glocker (Imperial College London)
Abstract: We propose a parameter efficient Bayesian layer for hierarchical convolutional Gaussian Processes that incorporates Gaussian Processes operating in Wasserstein-2 space to reliably propagate uncertainty. This directly replaces convolving Gaussian Processes with a distance-preserving affine operator on distributions. Our experiments on brain tissue-segmentation show that the resulting architecture approaches the performance of well-established deterministic segmentation algorithms (U-Net), which has never been achieved with previous hierarchical Gaussian Processes. Moreover, by applying the same segmentation model to out-of-distribution data (i.e., images with pathology such as brain tumors), we show that our uncertainty estimates result in out-of-distribution detection that outperforms the capabilities of previous Bayesian networks and reconstruction-based approaches that learn normative distributions.